The hurricane season started on 1er June, but since then no new tropical storms or hurricanes have formed in the North Atlantic. Should this be seen as an error by the weather forecasting organizations which had all announced an intense 2022 season?
From June to November, the United States and the West Indies live under the threat of being confronted with adestroyer on their shores. All forecasting organizations have agreed for months: than average. The the US Oceans and Atmospheric Administration, has predicted fourteen hurricanes, including seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
However, thehurricane started on 1er June and only three phenomena were recorded, simple tropical storms which did not reach the stage of hurricane: the Alex on June 5-6, then Bonnie and Colin mid-June. For two months, no more tropical storms have emerged in the North Atlantic.
A flat calm that is not surprising
Were the weather forecasters wrong? ” So far, everything is going as planned.”, . It may come as a surprise, but even though it has been two and a half months since the hurricane season started, we are already slightly above normal.
It usually takes until early August to count three tropical storms, while this year this number was reached in mid-June. Hurricanes don’t form on average until August 11, andusually not until early September, when the water is warmest. The water is indeed the main fuel for the formation of hurricanes. Over the past 30 years, four seasons have seen an astonishing low in hurricane activity between July 3 and August 3: 1993, 1999, 2000, and 2009.
A rebound in activity to be expected within two weeks
The flat calm of recent weeks is linked, among other things, to thevery dry in the middle layers of the atmosphere. This very dry air has two characteristics that prevent hurricanes from forming: sand particles from the Sahel, and strong wind shear. Another climatic parameter comes into play, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (OMJ), which presents itself in certain years with more or less intensity and which causes great instability and violent along the equator. The OMJ is currently non-existent, but could wake up very actively by mid-August.
If this is confirmed, the American Meteorological Society warns that we will have to expect a rebound in thebetween 2nd and 3rde week of August, with possible development of hurricanes between late August and early September. The peak intensity of hurricanes generally always occurs between the end of August and the beginning of October anyway.