Regional, the Sicily case accelerates the game in Lombardy: the League wants to close on Fontana, but the polls are for Moratti

If nationwide to the three main parties of the center-right coalition it took a few hours to present themselves in front of cameras and journalists with a “full agreement” on the elections of 25 September, the same can not be said with regard to two fundamental matches – in the North, for the League, and in the South, for Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia – which in these hours are shaking the secretariats of the three political forces: the upcoming vote in Sicily and that of next spring in Lombardy. Yes, because the early resignation of Nello Musumeci from Palazzo d’Orléans they had a double effect: surprising the allies, on the one hand; And accelerate negotiations in Milan (although the leaders have assured that “we will talk about it from September 26”).

The truth is that both Palermo and the Lombard capital are discussing the formula that Carroccio, FdI And FI they will find not to break the coalition. Compared to two weeks ago, when the Draghi government was still in office, everything has changed. The Sicilian elections should have been held in late autumn, while for Palazzo Lombardia, before the fall of the executive, discussions were underway between Matteo Salvini, Giorgia Meloni And Silvio Berlusconi. The negotiations on the Policies have slowed down, at least at first, those for the Regionals. But now, with Musumeci’s farewell, both matches have entered the agenda of the three leaders with arrogance.

Musumeci, in recent months, has been openly attacked by Forza Italia (from Gianfranco Miccichéin the lead) and in fact, as soon as he announced his resignation, the party of Silvio Berlusconi proposed, as candidate for president, the former minister Stefania Prestigiacomo. The Carroccio, however, immediately got in the way. Salvini, from Lampedusa, has made it known that “We are very ready”. And tightly around his right arm on the island, Nino Minardostated that “The League is ready to govern Sicily”. The running name, for the Carroccio, is precisely that of Minardo, to which is added that of the deputy Alessandro Pagano. And in all of this Brothers of Italy stands by and watches, accepting that Musumeci be sidelined? Meanwhile, the outgoing president, in yesterday’s video message, said he was willing “to lead the center-right coalition”, while reiterating that he was “willing to take a step to the side”.

The reasoning that is made within Meloni’s party is the following: does Matteo Salvini really have an interest in governing Sicily? The answer is no. Because it has no expendable name to propose and because even in electoral terms it is not as good as its allies. And then the suspicion – which becomes an almost certainty – is that it is simply raising the priceplaying his game on the table. The problem, however, was born when Sicily – by hypothesis – is left to Forza Italia and Lombardy to the Lega. Because FdI, polls in hand, is the strongest party in the coalition. And he will want something for himself as well. “If Salvini wants to put his flag in the two Regions, go ahead, we have another attitude – he comments to the Lombard coordinator of FdI, Daniela Santanché – as a party we have always been respectful of the rules. If there is someone who does not respect them, they will take responsibility for them“. The “rules” to which Santanché refers concern the practice of reconfirm the outgoing president. Translated: if Musumeci is not a candidate in Sicily, we will draw our consequences in Lombardy. One tear within the coalition? “I am calm on this point – he adds – Giorgia Meloni is a person of common sense and will assert herself against party leaders”.

A scenario with a center-right split in the race for regional elections, although not impossibleis hard to believe. It is no coincidence that for some long-time politician the agreement reached for the Policies (98 single-member constituencies in FdI, 70 in the Lega, 42 in Forza Italia plus the right, for the most voted party, to indicate the Prime Minister) already conceals theassignment of candidates for Sicily and Lombardy. In these terms: the first to Forza Italia, the second to the Lega e the future head of government – or capa – to Brothers of Italy.

However, in Lombardy, Letizia Moratti remains in the running despite the League having decided, in the end, to focus again on Attilio Fontana. In this framework of uncertainty, Political Scenarios commissioned a survey, carried out by Winpoll in late July, the results of which are quite surprising. The scenarios considered are three. The first: Moratti runs with his own listsupported by the Brothers of Italy, against Fontana e Carlo Cottarelli, candidate of the center left. The second: Moratti is nominated by the center-right united against the economist. The third: Moratti agrees (even) the center-left and challenges its current president. Well, in all three cases Moratti would be the most voted. In the first scenario it would obtain 35% of the votes against 33% of Cottarelli and 27% of Fontana. In the second, if chosen by FdI-Lega-FI, it would exceed Cottarelli by more than 20 points (58% against 36%). In the third it would win, albeit slightly, against its current president: 45% to 44%.

Twitter: @albmarzocchi
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