The outgoing president, not yet officially a candidate for re-election, even if he claims to be “very keen”, is credited with 26% of the voting intentions in the first round, gaining 1 point compared to the previous survey of the same institute in December, ahead of Marine Le Pen (17%, +1) and Valérie Pécresse (16%, =), while the candidate Reconquest! Eric Zemmour seems left behind (12%, -2).
On the left, no candidate would reach the 10% mark, at a time when the prospect of a joint candidacy proposed by Anne Hidalgo (PS) comes up against the refusals of Yannick Jadot (EELV) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon ( BIA).
The candidate La France insoumise would obtain 9% of the votes (-1 point) and would be ahead of the environmentalist contender by 8% (+1 point), far ahead of the socialist candidate (4.5%, -0.5 pt), the communist Fabien Roussel (2%, =) and sovereignist Arnaud Montebourg (1%, -1.5 pt).
Macron would win against Pécresse
The irruption of Christiane Taubira, who “plans” to be a candidate and who will give her decision “in mid-January”, would not globally change the situation for the left, the former Minister of Justice being credited with 3% of the vote , thus losing 1.5 points to Anne Hidalgo, 1 point to Yannick Jadot and 0.5 point to Emmanuel Macron.
In the second round, the outgoing head of state would win against Valérie Pécresse (55% against 45%), and more widely against Marine Le Pen (58% -42%). The hypothesis of a duel against Eric Zemmour, however, has not been tested.
Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the ballot. They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey.
Survey conducted online from January 5 to 6, 2022, with 1,500 people registered on the electoral rolls, from a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method.
Margin of error between 0.7 and 3.2 percentage points.