Legislative: the union of the left is ahead of the outgoing majority, but…

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The Harris Interactive – Toluna voting intentions barometer for Challenges shows that the union of the left tops the voting intentions in the first round nationally (28%) as in Occitania (31%), ahead of the presidential majority outgoing (26%). But the Nupes would have no chance of winning an absolute majority while Jean-Luc Mélenchon is struggling to convince that he would be a good Prime Minister beyond the left.

One month before the first round of the legislative elections, the political situation is beginning to settle down around the three blocs that appeared during the presidential election. The “extreme center” bloc, to use Emmanuel Macron’s expression, has managed to organize itself in a “Together” coalition which brings together Renaissance (ex-LREM), the MoDem, Horizons, Agir and the other small formations.

The left bloc gave birth, in pain, to the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) which brings together La France Insoumise, Europe Ecology, the Greens, the Communist Party and the Socialist Party. Finally, the far-right bloc, more discreet, which is divided, the National Rally having established no national alliance but remaining open to occasional support. In this landscape, the “match” seems to settle between Ensemble and Nupes, each making the other the main adversary.

Macron makes Nupes his number one opponent

“Do not be intimidated” and “fight”, launched Emmanuel Macron to the candidates of the presidential majority who had an appointment Tuesday near Paris for a session of team-building, practical advice and a family photo. “The French have already settled the big questions. There is no third round of the presidential election,” insisted Emmanuel Macron in his speech behind closed doors, even if it means appearing – for lack of having appointed a Prime Minister – more like the real leader of the majority than like the president of all the French. According to the Head of State, his candidates will face “a project of exclusion on the far right of the chessboard” and “on the other side a project which has chosen communitarianism”. But it is the Nupes that the Macronists are targeting as a priority.

Because since its founding agreement and its convention on Saturday, the left-wing union has experienced a dynamic as shown by the interactive Harris Toluna poll for the magazine Challenges, which, given the possible dissidence at Ensemble or Nupes, tested a particular configuration : “a fictitious offer, that is to say unique in each constituency and disembodied (a candidate supported by…) inhibiting the local effects of the elections and the territorial anchoring of the candidates. »

La Nupes reaches 28% of voting intentions in France, 31% in Occitania

“In this configuration, Nupes would collect 28% of the votes cast, in particular due to a good mobilization of left-wing voters (74%) and the various components of the union: 78% among those who feel close to France rebellious, 67% from the Socialist Party and 77% from EELV. If the union loses 7 points compared to the arithmetic sum of all the scores of the left-wing candidates tested last week (which is often the case, politics not being a matter of arithmetic), it suggests good reports”, explains Antoine Gautier, group leader in the Policy & Opinion department of Harris interactive.

The presidential majority (Together) is behind the Nupes with 26% of the vote (+2 points), the candidates from the National Rally collect 24% of voting intentions (-1 point) far ahead of those supported by the Republicans and the ‘UDI (9%; +1 point), and “Reconquest” (6%, stable).

Toluna Interactive Harris Poll

In Occitania – where Marine Le Pen had won 24.6% of the votes in the 1st round of the presidential election, ahead of Emmanuel Macron (23.5%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (22.4%) the candidates of Nupes would arrive in the lead by collecting 31% of the votes cast, ahead of the candidates supported by the RN (27%). The candidates supported by the presidential majority would be positioned in 3rd place with 23% of the votes. Percentages which could obviously move downwards depending on dissent…

Even if it remains perilous to establish projections in seats since the electoral offer in each constituency is not yet known (the deadline for submitting candidacies is set at 6 p.m. on May 20), Harris nevertheless tried to outline the face of the future Assembly. “The deputies supported by the Nupes would see their number increase in comparison with their current situation, going from 68 (all groups combined) to more than a hundred..”

The Nupes allows the left to have many more deputies than in 2017

“La Nupes is also drawing positive momentum from our measurement last week. In detail, the National Assembly would see between 60 and 85 rebellious deputies entering the hemicycle (against 17 currently) and an environmental group would emerge with 20 to 35 deputies. For their part, the Communist Party and the Socialist Party are still hoping to obtain a group in the Assembly with between 8 to 15 deputies for the first and 17 to 33 deputies for the second. »

Toluna Interactive Harris Poll

Toluna Interactive Harris Poll

On the other hand, the projection in deputies of the presidential majority would suffer “a decline of around thirty seats compared to last week, with the possibility of obtaining between 300 and 350 seats (compared to 346 currently for the deputies of the LREM groups, MoDem , Act), nevertheless having an absolute majority.

The LR and UDI deputies would see their number greatly reduced: between 30 and 48 (compared to 120 for the LR and UDI groups currently), while the RN could count on 52 to 80 deputies in this legislature (compared to 8 during the previous one) ” , believes Harris.

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