Legislative in France: Macron’s coalition wins by only 21,442 votes over the left alliance

Shaken by the Nupes in the first round of the legislative elections on Sunday, Macronie starts campaigning again on Monday to try to retain an absolute majority in the National Assembly in the second round in a week.

The presidential coalition, united under the label Ensemble!, beat the united left by just over 21,000 votes, out of 23.3 million voters in the first round (25.75% of the vote, against 25.66% for the Nupes) and keeps the advantage in the projections of the 577 seats of deputies.

But the suspense is total to know if Emmanuel Macron will manage, two months after his re-election, to maintain an absolute majority of 289 seats, allowing him to have his reforms voted on, starting with that of pensions.

The various institutes give the Macron camp within a range of 255 to 295 seats, when the left (LFI, PCF, PS and EELV) gathered under the Nupes banner, is estimated between 150 to 210 seats.

“We are the only political force able to obtain a strong and clear majority,” insisted Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who is returning to the campaign on Monday in the 6th constituency of Calvados where she came comfortably in the lead in the first round.

But it remains to be seen how far the settling will go for the outgoing majority, while in 2017, La République en Marche and the Modem had won more than 32% in the first round before obtaining nearly 350 deputies in the second.

– “Serious warning” –

“The majority is far from certain (…) It is a very serious warning which is addressed to Emmanuel Macron”, insists Brice Teinturier, deputy general manager of Ipsos France.

“What was acquired the day after the presidential election is less so this evening. But the second round, the voting method will mechanically favor the Together coalition!”, advances for her part Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic, director of BVA Opinion.

The other major issue in the June 19 ballot will be the fate reserved for the fifteen candidate ministers, knowing that a defeat would immediately rhyme with the departure of the government.

All passed the first round. But some are in great difficulty, starting with the Minister for Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion Amélie Montchalin, the centerpiece of the government. The Minister of European Affairs Clément Beaune is also in unfavorable ballot in Paris where Nupes obtained three elected from the first round and comes first in twelve of the eighteen constituencies.

Others like Elisabeth Borne or the ministers Gabriel Attal and Olivier Véran are on the other hand well on their way to winning and thus retaining their position in government.

The two camps have one week to ward off record abstention which reached 52.49% of registered voters, exceeding the previous one in 2017 (51.3%).

Nupes leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon called on the “people” to “surge next Sunday” in the voting booths to allow him to become Prime Minister and impose cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron, as the plural left had achieved in 1997 with Lionel Joseph.

– “Scandalous” –

Already Mr. Mélenchon has succeeded since the left, thanks to his historic union agreement, should be the main opposition bloc at the Palais-Bourbon, taking over from the Republicans who will count their survivors among the hundred outgoing.

LREM indicated that it would not give national instructions but “on a case-by-case basis” in the constituencies where RN and Nupes candidates oppose each other, judging that certain candidates of the united left were “extreme”.

A choice deemed “scandalous” by the ecologist Yannick Jadot and many rebels. “A democratic scandal”, accused the president of SOS racism Dominique Sopo who underlined that the extreme right was “the camp of racism as well as the refusal of equality and democracy”.

Faced with the start of the controversy, Elisabeth Borne tweeted in the evening: “Faced with the far right, we will always support candidates who respect republican values“, response to a request for clarification from Fabien Roussel. »Our line: never give a voice to the extreme right«, she clarified.

As expected, the candidates of the National Rally (18.5% to 19.8%) failed to capitalize on the momentum of Marine Le Pen who had garnered more than 40% of the votes in the second round.

Confined to eight elected in 2017, the contingent of RN deputies should however be much larger this time, and still count in its ranks Ms. Le Pen, largely in the lead in her constituency of Pas-de-Calais (53.96% but not elected in the first round for lack of sufficient voters).

From her stronghold of Hénin-Beaumont, she urged voters to “send a very large group of patriotic deputies to the new National Assembly”.

In the event of a duel between Together! and Nupes, Mrs. Le Pen urged her voters to “not choose”. “France is neither a trading room nor a ZAD“, she thundered.

For his part, Eric Zemmour, who was one of the leaders of the presidential election, missed his landing in politics. The far-right polemicist was eliminated in the Var, as were the other ambassadors of his Reconquest! party, Guillaume Peltier in the Loir-et-Cher and Stanislas Rigault in the Vaucluse.

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