Legislative 2022: if Nupes and Ensemble are neck and neck, why are the projections in the seat so different?

the essential
About 21,000 votes separate the final results of Nupes and Ensemble. However, the projections for the number of seats in the National Assembly show a significant gap. How is this difference explained?

It is a difference that surprises and questions. While a small gap separates the final results of the Nupes (LFI, EELV, PS and PC) from Ensemble (LREM, Modem, Horizons, Agir), the difference is much greater in the number of seats in the future National Assembly .

Read also :
DIRECT. Legislative 2022: “What Jean-Luc Mélenchon is looking for is anarchy”, believes Amélie de Montchalin

The final results of the Ministry of the Interior – disputed by Nupes – indicate that the presidential majority came first in the first round with 25.75% of the vote and 5,857,558 votes against 25.55% of the vote and 5,836,116 voice. According to projections in number of seats from polling institutes, Together could obtain between 275 and 310 seats and Nupes between 175 and 205 seats out of the 577 seats of deputies in the next National Assembly.

How to explain this big difference? The main explanation is voice reserves. The pollsters, who carry out these projections, assume that the voters of the candidates not qualified for the second round will be more inclined to vote for a candidate from Ensemble than for a candidate from Nupes. Thus, the candidates of the presidential majority should benefit from a better transfer of votes.

Infographic Robin Serradeil/Piktochart

Read also :
MAP. Legislative results 2022: discover the final scores in all the constituencies and municipalities of France

These projections are made even before the announcement of the official results of the first round. Opinion polls were carried out on the day of the first round on the basis of a sample of voters, 7000 voters for example for Harris interactive. Then, based on these reported votes, the pollsters extrapolate to the 577 constituencies to get an idea of ​​the future National Assembly.

The results should be taken with great caution because the margin of error is significant.

Leave a Comment