Legislative 2022: here is the projection of the seats in the National Assembly at the end of the 1st round

The Together! resists rather well but could not cross the fateful bar of 289 seats.

There is only one certainty: there will be no tidal wave of En Marche candidates as in 2017, on the evening of the second round, next Sunday. It will not be necessary to count on 350 deputies to support the policy driven by Emmanuel Macron. However, behind the new coalition of the majority, it must be noted that Together! holds up pretty well. Well helped by the majority ballot in two rounds which gives it a definite advantage in its central position on the political spectrum.

Absolute majority ?

Despite the very strong push of the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) promised between 170 and 220 seats, that of Together! could however cross the fateful bar of 289 seats and again obtain an absolute majority. It is credited according to the first trends of the polling institutes, to be taken with precaution, from 258 to 298 seats.

It is very likely that the presidential majority will obtain a relative majority. That is to say, she will have to learn to deal with her right and the LR, UDI and various right candidates. Which could get more than 50 deputies.

The specter of cohabitation recedes

By coming in third position with nearly 20% of the votes cast, the National Rally will not be able to translate its good score into a number of deputies. But the far-right movement is promised a parliamentary group. For this, he will have to exceed the 15 elected deputies. The RN should have between 15 and 30, which would mark the strong comeback of the party in the hemicycle.

5 years after the Macron tsunami, the winner’s bonus has therefore remained relative. But the specter of a cohabitation has deeply moved away. Just like the hypothesis of a Jean-Luc Mélenchon Prime Minister. Admittedly, the presidential majority is in decline, many of its outgoing candidates were beaten last night, but the postponement of votes should allow it to remain in the majority. On the other hand, the presidential majority is not sure to have a free hand. Answer Sunday, June 19 at 8 p.m.

Leave a Comment