Demography in Occitania: will your department gain or lose inhabitants in the next 50 years?

This Wednesday, November 24, INSEE communicated its demographic projections for 2070. Some departments of Occitanie will experience strong growth. Others will decline slightly.

With 824,000 additional inhabitants, Occitanie should be the region of France which will experience the strongest demographic growth by 2070.

However, INSEE projections show significant inequalities between the departments of the region. Some are expected to experience strong growth. Others will see their population decline.

These departments which are going to gain inhabitants

Most of the increase should indeed be concentrated in two departments: Hérault (+ 27.6%) and Haute-Garonne (+ 27.3%).

The demographic growth of these two departments should mainly be played out in the coming years since the Hérault should gain 271,000 inhabitants by 2050, and the Haute-Garonne 327,000.

Between 2050 and 2070, growth slows down sharply with respectively 49,000 and 42,000 additional inhabitants in these two departments.

Decreases in the least populated departments

Apart from these major leaps forward, demographic growth should be weaker elsewhere in the region. We note all the same an expected increase of 9% in the Tarn, 8% in the POs, 6% in the Aude and 2.3% in the Gard.

Conversely, other departments should lose inhabitants. This is the case of the Hautes-Pyrénées, which should lose more than 9,000 inhabitants, i.e. a drop of 4% in its population. For Aveyron, a drop of slightly more than 1% is expected.

Demographic progression detailed department by department

FREE MIDI – A.LLOP

  • In Ariegethere were 153,066 inhabitants in 2018. There will be 155,000 in 2052 and 156,000 in 2070.
  • In the Aude, there were 372,806 inhabitants in 2018. There will be 394,000 in 2050 and 395,000 in 2070.
  • In the Aveyron, there were 279,274 inhabitants in 2018. The population will increase to 282,000 in 2050, before dropping to 276,000 in 2070.
  • Similar dynamics in the Gard which had 745,458 in 2018, will have 770,000 in 2050 then 763,000 in 2070.
  • In the Gersthere were 191,283 in 2018. There will be 195,000 in 2050 and 194,000 in 2070.
  • In the Batch the population should remain fairly stable: 173,929 inhabitants in 2018, 176,000 in 2050 and 173,000 in 2070.
  • In Lozerethis should change little: 76,520 in 2018, 77,000 in 2050 and 76,000 in 2070.

  • In Haute-Garonne, there were 1,380,672 inhabitants in 2018. There will be 1,707,000 in 2050 and 1,757,000 in 2070.

  • In Herault there were 1,159,220 in 2018. The population will grow to 1,430,000 in 2050 and 1,479,000 in 2070.
  • In the Hautes-Pyrenees, there were 229,191 in 2018. There will only be 223,000 in 2050 and 220,000 in 2070.
  • The Eastern Pyrenees had 476,357 inhabitants in 2018. There will be 515,000 in 2050 and 514,000 in 2070.
  • In the Tarnthere were 388,596 in 2018. There will be 420,000 in 2050 and 424,000 in 2070.
  • In the Tarn-et-Garonne, there were 259,124. There will be 282,000 in 2050 and 283,000 in 2070.

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